The world is changing. Geopolitics are shifting with the world returning to a multi-polar paradigm. In economics, markets like India and China are returning to their natural dominant positions. Africa is on the rise. This week’s landing by an Indian lunar lander at the South Pole of the Moon reminds us that those who want to remain relevant and successful need to grasp the new realities and understand the cultures behind them.
A Passage to India
I landed in the old Delhi airport at night. It was hot. As the door from the terminal opened, I was confronted with a sea of people pressed up against the barricades, waiting for family or friends. It was 1997, and this ” was my first visit of what would be many to India.
I had been a history student at university. I mainly studied late 19th-century and early 20th-century great power history. Great power history revolved primarily around the conflict for domination in Europe, the rush to colonize and subjugate “non-European” races and territories and the rise of Japan and Japanese aggression as a way to resist European (See my post on the lessons for geopolitics on the road to Pearl Harbor here)
My understanding of India, which had been informed by Western education, was limited to something far away but crucial to the British Empire. I had even completed my graduation dissertation on the defence plans for the North West Frontier between 1902 and 1907, from the menace of the Russian bear encroaching ever closer across Central Asia. History does echo, and I may write any post about the political debates and actions of 1902 to 1907 applied to 20 years of conflict in Afghanistan at the beginning of this century.
Today, though, I confess that I saw India through the eyes of an old-guard colonist when I visited in 1997. My warning today for others in business, industry and politics is to understand and embrace the changes in geopolitics and economic realities before it is too late.
Waking up to the news of India’s moon landing, I celebrated with joy that the Asian powerhouse, after 500 years of servitude or poverty, is returning to its own as a world power. India is only the fourth country to reach the moon – following the United States, the USSR, and China. I was proud of its scientists and people because today, as a proponent of diversity and the power of a globalized economy, India is now a world leader.
Indian Growth
My next visit to India was in 2011. It was already a very different India. Per capita GDP multiplied thrice since my first visit ($415 to $1450) (World Bank, via BRICS and the New Geopolitical Paradigm
However, not all Western-centric organizations or their nations see Asia in the same light. The BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) have shown a combined rapid growth over the past two decades and have a shared GDP that now outperforms the G7. This outperformance is despite Russian, Brazilians and South African actual decline in GDP. (See the full article by Statista here: https://www.statista.com/chart/30638/brics-and-g7-share-of-global-gdp/) The G7, once the elite group of economic powers, is being seen more as a club of old-world powers – mirroring the Great Powers at the end of the 19th and beginning of the 20th centuries. While India was busy steering its lunar lander, the BRICS met in South Africa for its 15th annual summit. Up to 40 other countries are reportedly requesting admittance to the new block. The geopolitical landscape is changing rapidly, with the Cold War’s bipolarity and the following decades’ uni-polarity giving way to a multi-polar world. I have enjoyed watching India grow as a country and an economy since my first visit 26 years ago. I have come to learn the distinct strengths of India and its people. My daughter attends an Indian international school here in Tokyo. Business leaders who can see the opportunity through diversity and respect not just India but all of the emerging Asian economies as equals and not look down upon them will future-proof their businesses and reap the benefits in years to come.
